故明君賢將，所以動而勝人，成功出於眾者，先知也。先知者，不可取於鬼神，不可象於事，不可驗於度，必取於人，知敵之情者也。
故用間有五：有鄉間，有內間，有反間，有死間，有生間
鄉間者，因其鄉人而用之；內間者，因其官人而用之；反間者，因其敵間而用之；死間者，為誑事於外，令吾間知之，而傳於敵間也；生間者，反報也。
Those that win every time sees what’s coming. To foresee/predict/estimate what might happen, one should not rely on superstitious predictions or gut feelings, one should not over rely on drawing direct comparison with history or similarities, and one should not be over reliant on statistical data or estimates. It must come from people, people who know the enemy.
– Understanding –
We must know the affairs of the business and the market inside out, current and future in order to return a desired positive return to our investments. History does not equate to future. There is no such thing as “market feel”. Do not over rely on quantitative data. We have to use or know the people who know the business.
鄉間, 內間, 反間, 死間, 生間
Not like for like, but below are my understanding of the types of people we would want to know when making an investment decision
– Consumers who use the product/services
– Employees who work for the company
– Suppliers who sell to the company
– Distributors who help the company to sell
– Marketers who help the company to advertise
– Regulators who approves/regulate the company’s products/services/patents
– Shareholders who invested in the company
– Investors who are looking to invest in the company
– Traders who are trading the company counter
Central idea is that all these people gives us a leading indicator of what is about to happen, what will happen or where the company is going towards.